Summary
- Nintendo forecasts 15 million Switch 2 units sold by the end of FY 2025.
- Production limits and US tariffs did not factor into this forecast, says President Furukawa.
- The forecast reflects the console’s high launch price and concerns about maintaining long-term momentum.
Nintendo President explains Switch 2 sales forecast
Nintendo has officially addressed concerns about the 15 million unit sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch 2, set to launch globally on June 5, 2025. During a Q&A session following the company’s financial results, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa explained that the forecast was not based on limitations in production or current US tariffs.
“We set this figure with the aim of reaching the same level of sales we achieved with Nintendo Switch in the roughly 10-month period between its launch in March 2017 and December that year,” said Furukawa. He emphasized that the figure was chosen based on realistic momentum expectations rather than external factors like supply chain limits.
Production and tariffs not a limiting factor
Furukawa clarified, “The limits of our hardware production capacity were not a factor,” and added that the potential for a recession or tariff fluctuations “did not affect our sales volume forecast either.” This statement was echoed by Nintendo of America’s Doug Bowser, who confirmed that tariffs were being managed, not avoided.
While the company has faced questions regarding rising costs, including those for accessories, Furukawa reiterated that Nintendo’s pricing strategy absorbs tariffs into retail pricing, with adjustments made only if market or trade conditions shift drastically.
High price and maintaining momentum are key concerns
At a price of $449.99 / £395.99, the Switch 2 is noticeably more expensive than its predecessor. Furukawa admitted this was the biggest challenge, stating, “Nintendo Switch 2 is priced relatively high compared to Nintendo Switch, so we recognize that there are corresponding challenges to early adoption.”
To mitigate this, Nintendo is bundling games like Mario Kart World and focusing on maintaining momentum through the holiday season. Furukawa also highlighted the strong backward compatibility and “more robust software lineup” as key selling points that could help the system outpace its predecessor in software sales.
Software projections and tariff impact
Nintendo forecasts 45 million units of Switch 2 software sales by the end of the fiscal year—excluding bundled copies of Mario Kart World. Including them, software sales could surpass the original Switch’s 52 million units sold during its first 10 months.
While the hardware has lower profit margins than the original Switch, Furukawa stated that platform growth and early momentum are more important during this launch window than maximizing short-term profits. “If the assumptions on tariffs change, we will consider what kind of price adjustments would be appropriate,” he said.
Conclusion
Nintendo’s 15 million Switch 2 sales forecast is based on realistic expectations given its high price, despite strong demand and a packed launch lineup. By confirming that tariffs and production were not limiting factors, Furukawa has emphasized a strategy centered on long-term growth and user adoption. With launch day approaching, all eyes are now on how Nintendo manages demand, pricing, and install base expansion.
